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A Ray of Light for Stocks?

A Ray of Light for Stocks?

Investor Sentiment now supportive of a market bottom  

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Featured

How Stories Drive the Stock Market

How Stories Drive the Stock Market

The day after posting Market Corrections: Separating Fact from Fiction, I was tickled to see this great article by Robert Shiller about how popular narratives, however unfounded, influence stock prices.  

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Featured

Market Correction: Separating Fact from Fiction

Market Correction: Separating Fact from Fiction

Some additional thoughts on the January market swoon and on Alan Blinder's WSJ article -- The Markets are Scaring Themselves

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GE's Move to Boston. Why It's Important.

GE's Move to Boston. Why It's Important.
What it Says About the Way Our Economy is Changing

Great article by Michael Porter of Harvard Business School about the importance of GE's decision to relocate its headquarters to Boston, not just because of what GE brings, but because of why it is coming.

GE's transformation over the last decade reflects how manufacturing is changing, the good things that portends for our economy and our competitiveness in global markets, but also the disruption it brings. Increasingly, the have and have not's will align along those who embrace change, and those stuck in old ways of thinking.

This has powerful implications going forward for our human capital -- one of our most valuable assets. 

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Featured

Dos and Don'ts of a Market Correction

Dos and Don'ts of a Market Correction
 The best advice is too boring for TV, and not profitable enough on Wall Street.

Given recent weakness in the stock market, and financial media’s tendency to magnify every normal wiggle, this is as good a time as any to revisit some long term perspectives, and some of the do’s and don’ts of a market correction.

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Client Letter January 1, 2016: Axiomatically Speaking

Client Letter January 1, 2016: Axiomatically Speaking
Patience will be a virtue in 2016. You find out who's been swimming naked when the tide goes out.

Your investment portfolio has been planned carefully within your financial and behavioral ability to accept risk. But the same can't be said for all investors, many of whom got too greedy in the last few years' bull market. They'll be forced to run for cover when the tide shifts. If you play it cool, you can benefit from their errors.

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Client Letter December 2015

Client Letter December 2015

Employment Data, the Truth behind the Headlines
Terror attacks and the Market 

November ended with slight declines for the month in target risk portfolios, but with healthy gains for the latest three month period, marking a recovery from the late summer and early fall correction.  

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Client Letter November 2015: Shaken Not Stirred

Client Letter November 2015: Shaken Not Stirred

James Bond usually gets roughed up pretty good as he goes about his missions, but invariably comes out golden in the end. And like 007’s infamous martini, global stocks markets were shaken in August and September, only to recover vigorously in October as the S&P had its best month since 2011 with an 8.4% return.

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Client Letter October 2015

Client Letter October 2015

Staying Put and Avoiding the Market's Sentimental Journey

When the market "corrects," what's being corrected?
The sharp decline in bullish attitudes amond investors is a very healthy development that increases the likely longevity of the current bull market.

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Client Letter September 2015

Client Letter September 2015

Market Whodunit

The sudden drop in the market has everyone looking for a culprit. The explanation may be much more elementary than you think, my dear Watson. Remember, the stock market predicts about twenty recessions for every one that actually occurs. In this case, stocks have been falling despite generally positive economic news. This suggests that the correction is probably technical, and not fundamental in nature. 

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Elementary Advice on the market conundrum

Elementary Advice on the market conundrum

Not even the sharpest living minds on investing have a good clue what’s coming next. Oracle of Omaha Warren Buffett admitted in May that he had been “wrong” about interest rates. Global investors continue to struggle in the quest for signs of what the future will look like – for interest rates, for China, for energy, for Greece. It’s an enigma everywhere, making the financial markets one of today’s greatest mysteries. Bruce Thompson spies the real culprit in the recent market decline.

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Client Note August 25, 2015

Client Note August 25, 2015

The market has been brutal over the last few days as concerns over China, fed rate hikes, and commodity weakness have invoked worries that haven’t been felt so acutely since 2011 during the Eurozone crisis, and conjuring up bad memories of 2008. 

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Client Letter August 2015

Client Letter August 2015

Market Focus: Value and Dividend Stocks out of Fashion

As a style of investing, dividends have under-performed the market recently. Portfolios with an equity income emphasis have lagged the market in the last couple of years. While frustrating in the short run, the longer term picture tells a different story: focus on fundamentals, not trends. In fact, we can exploit trends – not by chasing them, but by faithfully diversifying and rebalancing.

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Client Letter July 2015

Client Letter July 2015

Benchmark Returns June 30, 2015

We wish you a happy and healthy 4th of July weekend. Here’s hoping that you spend the next few days thinking more about barbecues and bottle rockets than the ongoing fireworks in Greece and investment markets.

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Client Letter June 2015

Client Letter June 2015

 Investment Review June 2015

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Client Letter May 2015

Client Letter May 2015

The Road Less Travelled

Robert Frost’s famous poem, while not written with financial markets in mind, is nevertheless one for investors to consider. It is particularly relevant when investing in markets that are demonstrating strong trends that appear to have no end in sight. Eventually money will cycle around to the "road less travelled."

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Client Letter May 2015

Client Letter May 2015

Rethinking bond allocations

Winston Churchill once said "It would be a great reform in politics if wisdom could be made to spread as easily and rapidly as folly". The similarity with investing is uncanny.

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Client Letter April 2015

Client Letter April 2015

“We know the future will outlast all of us, but all of us will live on in the future we make.”  Ted Kennedy

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Client Letter January 2015

Client Letter January 2015

Named after Janus, the Roman god of passageways, the first month of the year is a good time for looking back at what happened last year and for peering toward the future.

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Client Letter October 2014

Client Letter October 2014

Checking with the Man on the Moon

Despite return of volatility, the investment world looks the same as it always has. What's unusual is the lack of volatility over the last few years as the market took “two steps forward”, not the “one step back” which has been occurring recently...

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