Named after Janus, the Roman god of passageways, the first month of the year is a good time for looking back at what happened last year and for peering toward the future.
Checking with the Man on the Moon
Despite return of volatility, the investment world looks the same as it always has. What's unusual is the lack of volatility over the last few years as the market took “two steps forward”, not the “one step back” which has been occurring recently...
As I will be on vacation next week, I wanted to provide an early mid-year investment update, along with some perspectives on market valuations and what may be driving stock prices higher. I look forward to discussing it with you when I return. In the meantime, please don’t hesitate to call Carla or Andy if anything arises. I will be in touch daily.
Last week the Boston Globe ran an article with this headline: An Easy Year for Investors, 2014 to be More Difficult. Really? We all accept how difficult it is to predict markets, not that pundits don’t keep trying, but how difficult can it be to recount the past accurately?
Perspective Amid Worst-Case Forecasts
Now that the market is some 20% higher than it was on January 1st, how many even remember the "fiscal cliff" concerns that caused the market correction last fall? Doomsday scenarios on the budget deficit erroneously analogize the fiscal condition of the entire country to the condition of a household. They fail to recognize the country's valuable tangible and unique intangible assets, supported by an unparalleled history of innovation. The present wave of innovation may be entering a new phase of deployment rendering current budget assumptions meaningless.